Jazz Vinyl Price Decline? Some Theories
OK, I have two theories on why prices in mid-tier, i.e. non-Blue Note jazz vinyl on eBay may be down from previous levels.
1. A couple of months ago, eBay made a decision that would drive more revenue, but not necessarily enhance either the buyer’s or seller’s experience. Previously, if you did a search of jazz vinyl you would only see those items that were up for auction, plus those items that had buy-it-now prices with specific deadlines. On average, if you would do a search you would get about 20,000 to 25,000 jazz records over the course of any week. Then eBay decided it wanted to charge more for store listings and raised the price from 3 cents a month for a store listing to some listings as high as 20 cents a month. To justify this rate hike, they made all of the store listings appear on general searches for jazz records.
The result: If you do a search on 12-inch jazz records, which I did just now, you will come up
approximately 140,000 items, five to six times what you would have seen a few months ago. My guess is that many buyers are not filtering their searches to only look at those items up for auction — which would be about 9,000 items now — and are being inundated with too many items to really take the time to find those that may be more obscure. Or, instead of browsing, they are now doing specific searches, a la “Blue Note.” The biggest thing I’ve noticed is how many fewer people are actually viewing records. I’ve seen some very nice records — original Jazzlands or New Jazz LPs — with less than 20 views. In the past, some of these records may have gotten 20 bids, not just 20 views. So I do think that eBay has precipitated this fall-off, which may continue until people get wise and change their search habits and criteria.
2. My second theory on price declines has to do with eBay grading and condition. We are not seeing a falloff in Blue Note prices because buyers seem not to care all that much about condition when it comes to original Blue Notes. We’ve seen Blue Notes in VG condition top the $1,000 barrier. The reality is, so far, you can’t seem to go wrong buying or selling a Blue Note in any condition. But, on the other labels, condition is more important and many of the records I’m not selling — or records I’m watching that fail to sell — are in VG or VG+ condition. My experience buying records in VG or VG+ condition from far too many sellers is that they tend to be over-graded. VG is usually pretty beat, and VG+ is not so great either. So, I think too many buyers have been burned on VG or VG+ records and are becoming more hesitant to pay top dollar. It used to be that I would buy a record on eBay in VG or VG+ condition and hope that the seller had graded it conservatively and it would actually be better. Now, if I buy a VG or VG+ record on eBay, I pray that it’s graded accurately and is not, in actuality, far worse.
What do you think? Are other people witnessing a similar drop in prices? Is it a good time, perhaps, to be buying?
I also noted this sudden jump in available vinyl. However, if you go for auctions only, you are back to the familiar 9-10.000 figure.
I, for one, almost never consult anything else than auction type sales. The chance of finding an early Blue Note or similar at a low fixed price is nil.
Btw: Ebay Germany have always had almost only set price sales, the percentage of auction type sales being extremely low.
The grading: is it EBay grading or sellers’ grading? I thought the latter. It is true that Goldmine is less strictly adhered to.
If Al is right, it may be time to get rid of my VG-/VG Lee Morgan’s “Candy”. Its been a long time since i plan to sell it…
My prophecy is that in the future the market will for Blue Note, Prestige, some Riversides and Savoys and a pack of collectible records from various labels in NM condition. You will no longer see a 15000 record collection ; Collector will downsize their collection to the essential ; or they will built only in that direction.
The guide of REAL colletible records remain to be written…
I think it can best be written by each collector himself.
My essentials count up to less than 1K. With some squeezing, I could arrive at 500. I should have ditched the non-essentials some time ago, in stead of starting to sell off my double and triple original Blue Notes, which fetched then ard 500 US$.
Regarding recent prices – might the drop in the Euro relative to the dollar be a major factor regarding recent price declines ? Do collectors here have any opinion about whether the majority of the rarer Jazz LP sales prior to the last few months were being sold from the US to non-US winning bidders?
I used to track this every once n a while. I sell from the States and the ratio was usually about 40 percent Asia (including Australia and New Zealand), 30 percent Europe and 30 percent U.S.
Can I offer a variation of Michel’s comment? Can age be a factor? Are the younger collectors more selective… or maybe more interested in later stuff? There was some talk here about a year ago about big band falling off the market. I personally have never heard Bob Brookmeyer and barely heard *of* him. Now, I realize that I’m far less versed than the average JC reader, and none can dream of Rudolph’s apparent knowledge, but it could be that what is remaining hot is what has in some way maintained an influence on later or current music. Judging by the remix CDs available through the 90’s and beyond, Blue Note has enjoyed a resurgence in hip factor due to sampling and hip hop etc. Those kids have since grown up, their tastes are more refined and they have more money than they used to. Brookmeyer just isn’t on their radar.
bethellodge: age IS a factor. You take Bob Brookmeyer as an example and it is a good example. I go a bit furter down the road: George Lewis or Bunk Johnson. The 1951 American Music albums of these New Orleans artists used to sell for min. $ 100. Now one can hardly sell them at all. Why? The generation who likes this music is extinct or has the records, which were most popular in the fifties.
The popularity of Blue Note is due to the marketing efforts of people like Cuscuna who created the cult.
Recently I treated myself on a $ 5000 evening by playing 2 mint copies of 1500-series Blue Notes, feat. 4 different tenors (1/2 alto) and 2 minor masters on trumpet, of whom one made it to fame and one not. No trombones. A beautiful evening, the music was great. I felt like somebody enjoying his Iranian caviar with a superb Russian vodka.
Anybody in for a guess which albums I am referring to????